Pick me, pick me: How big a vote does Romney need to look like a winner?
Weekly Edition | Jan. 10, 2012 | By: NPStaff
The GOP Field narrows down, The break down.
Expectations now at there highest, with the senior Senator from Arizona endorsement, Senator John McCain. How big of a vote does Romney need to look like a winner? Or will he be a John McCain in 2008, loosing to current President Barack Obama. Mitt Romney is almost certain to win Tuesday’s Republican presidential primary election in New Hampshire. After all, he’s led every poll in the state since approximately 2009.
Mr. Romney could still lose ground in the eyes of the media and professional political strategists if he fails to win by a convincing margin here, a northeastern state where he’s been campaigning for years.
People of Manchester’s restaurants and bars are still questioning that ‘Mitt’ is to be their nominee.
According to several opinion polls for political candidates, they say Romney’s standing in New Hampshire polls over the last month has ranged between 33% and 46%. If the former Massachusetts governor comes in at the low end of that range — say, 35% or below but at 40% or higher, Romney will be declared a clear winner, with momentum that can carry him through the next contests in South Carolina and Florida –- even though he won’t have come near a majority.
The head scratch
What if the result is in between — say 37%, which happens to be the average of the five most recent polls? At least one pundit has proposed that 37% be considered a clear break-point between a win and a loss from Romney. But the Board of Expectations is more cautious than that. At 37%, Romney will probably be pronounced a winner, but a fragile, unconvincing winner — still vulnerable if one of his conservative rivals can emerge as the leading alternative.